Uranium Futures Retreat to $71 Amid Easing Fund Activity and Utility-Driven Repricing, Despite Long-Term Supply and Policy Tailwinds

Uranium futures in the United States fell to $71 per pound, retreating from a seven-month high of $79 reached on June 27th. The decline marks a correction following a brief but sharp rally that had been triggered by aggressive spot market accumulation from financial entities—particularly the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT)—which continues to play an outsized role in uranium price formation due to the thin and illiquid nature of uranium derivative markets. With no fresh buying from holding funds in recent sessions, utilities have regained pricing leverage, submitting lower bids and anchoring prices closer to their long-term contract valuations.

The latest rally was largely catalyzed by SPUT’s unexpected move to purchase $200 million worth of uranium, double the size initially signaled during its capital raise, according to Canaccord Genuity. SPUT’s capital deployment has a significant short-term impact on spot prices because the trust purchases uranium directly from the market and removes it from tradable supply, functioning as a form of passive inventory sequestration. However, the lack of follow-through buying has since allowed market forces—primarily driven by utilities and reactor operators—to reset prices toward more sustainable levels.

Despite the recent pullback, yellowcake remains significantly higher than the lows seen earlier this year, underpinned by a supportive US policy backdrop and tightening global supply fundamentals. The Biden administration has recently reaffirmed its commitment to revitalizing the domestic nuclear fuel cycle, with policy measures that include funding domestic uranium enrichment, streamlining reactor licensing, cutting regulatory barriers, and sustaining trade restrictions on imports from state-linked nuclear exporters, notably Russia. These actions are aimed at strengthening energy security and accelerating the deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) and next-generation nuclear technologies, both of which require a secure and stable supply of low-enriched uranium (LEU).

On the supply side, market participants are closely watching Kazatomprom, the world’s largest uranium miner, which recently announced that it is on track to meet a mid-point production target of 14 million pounds for 2025—nearly 20% below the company’s late 2023 guidance. The downward revision reflects challenges in wellfield development, equipment procurement, and logistical disruptions, adding structural tightness to a market already under strain from years of underinvestment and delayed mine restarts. Meanwhile, French nuclear company Orano has raised the possibility of closing its SOMAIR mine in Niger, citing export constraints imposed by Niger’s military-led government. The mine closure would further constrain African supply, which traditionally accounts for a significant portion of European uranium imports.

These tightening dynamics are expected to exert upward pressure on medium-term prices, even if short-term volatility remains driven by fund flows and speculative behavior. Uranium demand is also on an upswing, with the World Nuclear Association (WNA) projecting a 28% rise in global reactor capacity by 2035, led by China, India, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, the shift toward carbon neutrality and energy transition policies in OECD economies is reviving interest in nuclear baseload generation, particularly as governments seek firm, low-emission power sources to complement intermittent renewables.

Nevertheless, the market remains thinly traded and susceptible to both upside and downside shocks. For instance, SPUT holds over 60 million pounds of U3O8, and its discretionary accumulation or liquidity-driven sales can materially move prices in either direction. Similarly, utility procurement cycles, typically driven by long-term contracting needs rather than spot volatility, can either anchor or diverge from futures price momentum depending on geopolitical events, enrichment availability, or regulatory shifts.

Looking forward, analysts at BMO Capital Markets and UxC suggest that uranium prices could retest $75–$78 per pound in Q3, particularly if new long-term supply agreements are signed amid contracting season peaks. However, short-term corrections such as the current pullback to $71 are considered healthy consolidations, allowing for re-alignment between physical demand and speculative inflows.

In conclusion, while U.S. uranium futures have corrected from recent highs, the underlying fundamentals remain bullish. Structural supply risks, geopolitical uncertainties, and supportive policy measures continue to provide a floor under prices, even as short-term sentiment oscillates with fund activity and utility negotiations. The market remains in a fragile balance—one that will increasingly be shaped by long-term security-of-supply concerns and the accelerating global energy transition.

Sources

Sprott Asset Management. (2025). SPUT Market Activity Report – June 2025.

Canaccord Genuity. (2025). Uranium Markets Update – Post-SPUT Buying Surge.

U.S. Department of Energy. (2025). Strategic Uranium Policy Brief – H1 2025.

Kazatomprom. (2025). Q2 Production Outlook and Revised Guidance.

Orano. (2025). SOMAIR Mine Update – Niger Export Risk Disclosure.

World Nuclear Association. (2025). Nuclear Fuel Market Report – Demand Outlook Through 2035.

UxC. (2025). Uranium Market Quarterly – Pricing and Contracting Analysis.