India’s Inflation Falls to 3.16% in April 2025: Lowest in Nearly Six Years

India’s annual inflation rate dropped sharply to 3.16% in April 2025, marking the lowest level since July 2019, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI). The print came in below both March’s 3.34% and market expectations of 3.3%, providing a strong signal of sustained disinflation. Crucially, inflation is now well beneath the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, increasing the likelihood of a policy rate cut in the coming monetary review.

The biggest contributor to this cooling was food inflation, which slowed to 1.78% year-on-year, its lowest since October 2021. This marked a sharp fall from 2.69% in March, aided by robust rabi crop output, improved food supply chains, and subdued global agricultural commodity prices. Since food constitutes nearly half of the CPI basket, this moderation had a strong deflationary pull on the headline index.

Meanwhile, housing inflation remained flat at 3.00% versus 3.03% in the prior month. However, fuel and light inflation surged to 2.92% from 1.48%, largely due to base effect distortions from tax relief measures a year ago, despite global energy prices trending lower.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.31%, reversing a 0.26% decline in March and halting a five-month streak of falling monthly inflation. The sequential uptick was marginal and not indicative of a broader inflationary trend.

In sum, April’s data suggests that India’s inflation remains firmly under control, led by a notable collapse in food price pressures. With the CPI rate now 84 basis points below the RBI’s target, and core inflation remaining soft, the case for a monetary policy easing cycle has clearly strengthened as India navigates the second half of 2025.